In Amman, cautious optimism from Iraqi expatriates

By Jason Erb Commentary by Monday, January 30, 2006

Jordan has a reputation as a haven for refugees in the Middle East. The kingdom faced, early on, the hurdle of absorbing hundreds of thousands of Palestinian refugees. Subsequent Arab-Israeli wars and the first Gulf war brought new waves of the Jordanians’ Levantine brothers. So too have various civil wars in the region.

In the 1970s, thousands of Lebanese sought refuge in Jordan. International sanctions on Iraq and the chaos following the United States-led invasion have now added Iraqis. Most unofficial sources claim that close to one million Iraqis now live in Jordan. In the past year alone perhaps 300,000 of them arrived, many from Iraq’s middle classes, making Jordan perhaps the leading meeting gathering place for Iraqis outside of Iraq.

Last December, tens of thousands of these Iraqis participated in their country’s second national elections since the fall of the regime of Saddam Hussein. Iraqis in Jordan expressed a clear consensus on the priorities of the new government. Security topped their list; prosperity came in a close second. How to best achieve these priorities, however, was where the consensus ended and where the hard work now begins.

Rami Muhammad, assistant director of the Sweifiyah election center, summed up the importance of security to Iraqis, saying, “All the candidates focus on security. Without it you can’t do business, you can’t attract investment, there’s no development or construction.”

A group of about 10 young men agreed that the new government must make security and prosperity the priorities, but saw prosperity as the first priority. “We need a government that gives the basic necessities of life so people can make a living. Then there will be security,” said one young man to the eager nods of his companions.

Several Iraqis saw outside involvement in Iraq as a major source of insecurity. A young man at the Sweifiyah center, said, “If America leaves and the government works for interests inside the country, not for those on the outside,” (a thinly veiled reference to a widespread Iraqi assumption that Shiite political leaders serve Iran’s interests), “then it will succeed.”

Most Iraqi voters in Jordan think that the best way to achieve security and prosperity is through a stronger national government. Dina, a stylish 29-year-old woman, expressed the hope of many for the new government. “What we need to improve the situation is someone who is strong and can address the security issue, someone who will in the next four years actually found a state,” she said. The new government “must form proper institutions, because without institutions there is no proper government.”

Expressing a desire for more nationally focused government, this election included a much higher turnout among Sunnis, who boycotted the January elections. A group of three Sunni activists taping a poster for Salih Mutlaq, a prominent Sunni politician, on their van didn’t participate in the elections for the interim Parliament, but this time they did. “We need to participate for better balance in government.”

Even with greater Sunni representation (7,655 candidates competed for 275 seats in Parliament), the new Iraqi government will likely remain weak and fractured. A balanced government focused on national, as opposed to sectarian or tribal, interests will be difficult to form. While such a government may better reflect the full sectarian and political diversity of Iraq, it will make the job of forming a Cabinet and governing the country that much tougher. In this sectarian atmosphere it is easy for any one of the three groups to veto the common good.

Most of those participating in the elections voiced optimism for the new government. Others were more pessimistic. One man, when asked what he expected from the new government replied, “Not a damn thing. But voting is a national duty. What else can we do?” A middle aged Shiite handing out election pamphlets at the Jabal Hussein center said, “Do you think these politicians give a lick about us? Look at this guy,” he said pointing to a stack of flyers he was handing out for a popular Sunni candidate Adnan Dulaimi, “do you think he cares about me?”

But most people remained cautiously optimistic. The elections were a step forward, but the challenges were many. The new government and the American-led occupation have a brief window to capitalize on the optimism.

American forces can start by withdrawing from Iraqi cities in preparation for a full withdrawal before the end of the year and by expanding the dialogue with Iraqi insurgency groups. A smaller U.S. presence and more weight behind the political process would help to blunt, if not stop, the insurgency and give greater significance to the elections, especially in the eyes of its opponents.

The new Iraqi government must avoid the sectarian squabbling that rapidly eroded optimism after elections for an interim Parliament last January. It should also move quickly to disband the sectarian militias that now compete with and riddle the national army and police, and work hard against the creation of sectarian “fiefdoms” in the various ministries.

This election was perhaps the best chance yet to salvage what has so far been a disastrous and costly American enterprise. Quick and decisive action must be taken to build on this brief window of opportunity. The next steps may well determine the epitaph on this latest American military adventure.

Most Iraqis were grateful to have a safe haven in which to wait out the chaos, but hoped they could return to their country soon. Ahmad, a 26-year-old student, hoped the new government would pay more attention to the needs of Iraqis living outside the country. He said he was well treated in Jordan, but felt like a guest and wanted to return to Iraq to finish his studies. His friend Hisham hoped the election would result in “a place where we can work and live, in our own country.”

Looking at recent events in Iraq and the initial election results, it looks like he will have to wait a bit longer.

Jason Erb is a Quaker International Affairs Representative based in Amman, Jordan. THE DAILY STAR publishes this commentary in partnership with the Common Ground News Service.

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