By Michael Freund May 5, 2002

Originally published in the Jerusalem Post, May 3, 2002.

With his fingers flashing 'V' for victory, and the crowd around him going wild with excitement, Yasser Arafat emerged from his compound in Ramallah yesterday looking like an over-the-hill rock star after a particularly memorable concert. Hundreds of his fans gathered around him to cheer, singing a slightly altered version of that old campfire favorite popular among veterans of the Intifada: "With our blood and with our spirit, we will redeem you, O Arafat." The only thing missing from the scene was a line of teenage girls in mini-skirts surging forward to get his autograph.

Most Israelis no doubt found the scene infuriating. After all, it was less than five months ago, on December 13, 2001, that the Israeli cabinet declared Arafat to be "irrelevant," saying he was directly responsible for the wave of Palestinian terror against Israel. And now, there he was, Mr. Irrelevant, looking all too relevant once again as he strolled toward the throngs of journalists and cameramen pushing each other to get a glimpse of this Kodak moment.

But Arafat's release from his confinement in Ramallah had all the markings of a discreet diplomatic deal. Coincidentally - or perhaps not - on the same day that Arafat's travel privileges were restored, the UN Secretary-General dropped the idea of sending a fact-finding committee to "look into" (read: lambaste Israel for) the battle of Jenin. Though there is no evidence yet to prove that Arafat's release came in exchange for the cancellation of the UN mission - possibly as part of an American-brokered deal - don't be surprised if this later proves to have been the case.

For, as much as Prime Minister Ariel Sharon might have wished to help Arafat fulfill his career objective of becoming a "martyr", he found himself in an increasingly difficult position. Having acceded to American demands that he not harm a hair on Arafat's head, Sharon was living a sniper's nightmare - he had his enemy in his sights, his finger all set to go on the trigger, but his commanding officer (in this case, President George W. Bush) ordered him not to fire. By letting Arafat out, Sharon got the world off of his back, at least temporarily, while staving off increasingly vitriolic criticism abroad on the subject.

In addition, by keeping Arafat locked up in Ramallah all that time, Sharon certainly helped to improve his standing at home, especially among right-wing voters. With his approval ratings rising again in the polls, Sharon perhaps felt that he could risk the wrath of some of his coalition partners by suddenly switching course and setting Arafat free. And, what's more, he likely feels that he succeeded in sending a strong message to the Palestinians, namely that if they start up with him again, he might just go one step further, turning Operation Defensive Shield into Operation Offensive Onslaught.

The fact is, however, that Sharon paid a heavy price in terms of his credibility by agreeing to let Arafat go. After the September 11 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, Sharon sought to portray Arafat as a Palestinian Osama Bin-Laden, likening Israel's war on terror with that of America's. But while Osama probably remains hidden in a cave somewhere in Afghanistan or Pakistan, Arafat emerged from his hideaway yesterday a free man, courtesy of the Israeli government. Moreover, while insisting that the fugitives holed up with the Palestinian leader be jailed for their crimes, Sharon has ostensibly allowed Arafat to get away with his misdeeds. So much for being morally consistent.

But before you start thinking that Arafat's release might herald a possible return to negotiations with the Palestinians, as Defense Minister Binyamin Ben-Eliezer has suggested, consider this: the Arafat who left the compound in Ramallah yesterday is not the same as the one who went in. The Palestinian Authority he heads is in tatters and Israel demonstrated rather convincingly that within a matter of a few days, it could easily retake all of Judea and Samaria. Hence, Arafat's feeble attempt in press interviews yesterday to compare Jenin with Stalingrad - he is trying to cover the Palestinian defeat, which is just as much his defeat, with a layer of mythical heroism.

And though Arafat's standing at home may have been temporarily boosted by his release yesterday, his prolonged, and involuntary, stay in Ramallah was not without its humiliations. The fearless leader of the Palestinian revolution did not confront the Israeli soldiers surrounding his office - he hid from them. And what's more, Arafat spent the past few weeks dining on kosher-certified food prepared by Chef Shaul Mofaz and IDF Catering, Inc. No wonder that Palestinian security chief Muhammad Dahlan had the audacity yesterday to suggest that the Palestinian Authority needed to undergo serious reform. That Dahlan dared to make such remarks suggests just how weak Arafat's position has become.

Thus, in the hopes of rallying Palestinian support behind him, Arafat is more than likely to reach again for the gun, rather than the olive branch. For, in times of crisis, that is what dictators tend to do. Within hours of his release, Arafat was already granting interviews, labeling Israel as "barbaric" and calling its soldiers "terrorists, Nazis and racists." Those are hardly the words of a man aching to get back to the negotiating table.

Indeed, they sound a lot like the lyrics of war. So get your earplugs ready, because it looks as if Arafat may be about to turn up the volume of violence once again.